People queue to withdraw money from a bank in Harare People queue to withdraw money from a bank in Harare
Harare - The expected boom in maize output that Zimbabwe has projected and pinned its hopes on for a 3.7 percent revised economic growth this year will be reversed by lower tobacco output as well as declining quality in the golden leaf.
Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa had initially projected 1.7 percent growth for the economy, but revised the figure upwards on Friday, saying the country could benefit from the surge in maize production.
“In fact, we are revising growth in the agricultural sector, and revising the overall growth. I anticipate after the revision, our growth to be around 3.7 percent from 0.7 percent or so that we had anticipated in the 2017 national budget,” Chinamasa said.
However, top economists from Zimbabwe have told Business Report that the bumper harvest would not be enough to translate into significant economic growth.
Economist John Robertson said only investor-friendly policies and enhanced economic productivity across all sectors would help Zimbabwe register economic growth.
“Only sound investor- friendly policies will help the economy grow, and in any case these policies should have been put in place way back in about 2015.
"You cannot just expect an economy to rebound just like that; we will not have such a growth that is if the economy grows at all,” Robertson said.
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The government is anticipating that the agriculture sector will have productivity of about $3billion (R39.5 billion) this year after undertaking programmes to boost cultivation of crops such as maize, tobacco and cotton.
It is expected that maize production will rise to about
3 million tons, although production may have been affected by excessive rains, input access glitches and the recently confirmed fall armyworm outbreak.
Robertson said the expected maize output would be affected by the decline in tobacco production.Tobacco has in the past few years been a major export earner for Zimbabwe, with nearly $900 million (R11.8 billion) in 2016 after the auctioning and marketing of as much as 164.5 million kilograms of the golden leaf.
“Tobacco may go down owing to a number of challenges in the industry, while quality of crop issues will also be worrisome and this will counter the maize crop output,” Robertson said.