Will Ramaphosa suspend Mchunu to safeguard ANC support in KZN?

President Cyril Ramaphosa may opt to suspend Police Minister Senzo Mchunu rather than firing him, following allegations by KZN police commissioner Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, due to Mchunu’s role in securing ANC support in the province, a political analyst said.

According to political analyst Goodenough Mashego, Ramaphosa is likely to tread the matter cautiously due to Mchunu's political influence in the province.

Mkhwanazi recently accused Mchunu of interfering in high-profile criminal investigations to protect individuals with links to crime syndicates and senior police officials.

Among the allegations, Mkhwanazi said Mchunu ordered the disbandment of the political task team investigating political killings and organised crime in the province.

He claimed Mchunu issued a directive in December 2024 to National Police Commissioner Lieutenant  General Fannie Masemola to shut down the task team, allegedly under pressure from Mchunu’s associates, including businessman Vuzimusi “Cat” Matlala, who has been arrested for attempted murder, and Brown Mogotsi. 

Mkhwanazi stated that Matlala was awarded a R360 million police contract in 2024, and further investigations indicated that he was financially supporting Mchunu’s political activities, along with Mogotsi.

He also said there was a deliberate effort to stall investigations into the murders of prominent entertainment figures, alleging that senior police officials tied to drug cartels were protecting criminal networks.

Speaking to IOL News, Mashego said the allegations are serious enough to warrant a full commission of inquiry, not just an investigation by the Independent Police Investigative Directorate (IPID), which he described as “toothless.”

“These are serious allegations coming from a professional police officer, not tainted by past political interference,” he said. 

“They warrant a commission to determine who is undermining the police, especially around organised crime. You can’t run a police force without intelligence.”

Mashego criticised the lack of leadership in police intelligence services, pointing to long-standing gaps since former Minister Bheki Cele’s tenure.

“Why has South Africa gone this long without a functioning intelligence division? These are fundamental questions a commission must explore,” he said.

Mashego said Ramaphosa faces a complex political balancing act.

“In a normal democracy, a minister facing such allegations would step aside,” he said. 

“But because Mchunu played a key role in securing votes for the ANC in KZN, Ramaphosa may avoid firing him to prevent alienating that support base.”

Mashego suggested Ramaphosa could use the situation to reshuffle the Cabinet, bringing in a professional with policing experience - even from outside the ANC.

“This is the time to look beyond party lines. There’s a Government of National Unity now. Ramaphosa could appoint someone from another party with real policing expertise,” Mashego said.

He warned, however, that most experienced police professionals may not be aligned with the ANC, and finding a suitable replacement from within the party could prove difficult.

Mashego went on to say that Ramaphosa’s credibility is at stake, particularly after failing to act decisively in past high-profile cases involving other ministers, such as Higher Education Minister Dr. Nobuhle Nkabane, Human Settlements Minister Thembi Simelane, and Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.

“There’s been a lot of talk and not enough action. If Ramaphosa can reshuffle and fire DA’s Deputy Minister Andrew Whitfield, why not Mchunu, who faces much more serious allegations?” he asked.

Mashego argued that suspension alone, while politically convenient - is often ineffective.

“Suspensions are not deterrents. Politicians continue drawing salaries, and cases drag on for years. A full reshuffle, framed as a broader Cabinet refresh, would be more meaningful,” he said.

He argued that Ramaphosa could shift Mchunu to another role and appoint someone such as International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola to head the police portfolio.

“If he fires Mchunu outright, there’s a risk he could defect to the MK Party, which has been gaining traction in KZN. That’s something the presidency is surely weighing,” he said.

He added that Ramaphosa must also consider gender representation in Cabinet, particularly if removing female ministers like Ntshavheni or Simelane.

“This is where it gets tricky… juggling political loyalty, electoral strategy, gender equity, and public accountability,” Mashego said.

Responding to the allegations, Ramaphosa has called them a “serious national security concern” and urged restraint and discipline. 

However, Mashego said that is not enough at all.

“He’s trying to strike a balance between protecting the ANC’s interests and upholding the rule of law. But it’s time to act,” Mashego said.

Meanwhile, security strategist and retired Interpol ambassador Andy Mashaile told IOL News that  Ramaphosa’s remarks describing the matter as a “serious national security concern” was a step in the right direction.

“He’s taking responsibility by acknowledging that infighting within law enforcement agencies opens up the SAPS to criticism and undermines efforts in crime prevention and combating,” Mashaile said. 

“This becomes a national security concern because crime is likely to increase. When you look at crime statistics over the next few months, this may impact information sharing and intelligence gathering.”

Mashaile emphasised that Ramaphosa had no choice but to intervene.

“The President must get involved… SAPS is a critical department,” he said. “In this situation, Ramaphosa has no choice but to act.”

He added, however, that Ramaphosa would not act without proper consultation and advice.

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