South Africa in World War 3

IN RECENT years, we have seen periodic global conflicts, with the potential of triggering the start of World War 3.  One of the most notable conflicts was between Russia and Ukraine, which started in 2014 and escalated in 2022. Russia made military advances to achieve political gain, while Ukraine, with a smaller military force, conjured international support to counter the invasion.

The West offered support in the form of supply of arms and munitions, intelligence and military training to civilian volunteers through private military contractors. During the escalation of the war in 2022, a few South Africans of Indian origin were studying in Ukraine fell part of the fleeing masses into neighbouring Poland.

Another notable and more recent conflict, was between India and Pakistan. A conflict where each country, became a proxy to test global player’s military hardware head-to-head. While both countries have been involved in a long-standing conflict, since the India-Pakistan partition. The recent conflict has been a focus on the use of drones and other airborne attacks, to get the other to expose their air defence systems along its border region. In the event of a full-scale war, knowing the enemy’s air defence systems locations would place one at an advantage in terms of air superiority.

Needless to say, the propaganda machines also kicked into gear, driving patriotism towards each nationality, with the incitement of the layman into much of the social media propaganda war. Sadly, extremist from both sides have settled in South Africa, sowing division within our local Indian community, with the hope of driving their foreign-based political agenda. This conflict was quickly defused with the intervention of the United States for a ceasefire agreement.

The current conflict between Iran and Israel has placed global powers on the edge as these 2 nuclear-armed countries attack each other with ballistic missiles. With each regional conflict, we see global players changing sides and forming new coalitions, with each conflict depending on the country’s political narrative.

One needs to examine the driving forces behind these conflicts, identify the global architects, and understand their economic and political agendas. Most global political leaders get elected into office, backed by big businesses to advance their economic interests; this is visible from a historical and present-day perspective. Since the early 16th century, the British had aspirations to expand their empire for economic gain and, as a result, had a huge part to play in the India-Pakistan division and the creation of Israel that led to the Palestine and Israel conflict. The British were responsible for creating a homeland for European Jews in Palestine at the end of World War 1.

The Jews were persecuted in Europe, and without the consultation of the Palestinian people, the British created a homeland and mass-migrated them into Palestine. Note: Palestine prior to World War 1 consisted of Jews, Christians and Muslims who cohabited in relative harmony in the region before Britain's interference. The British have also failed to address the global displacement of Indians under indentured labour. Today Indians in all post-colonial countries struggle as minorities, as they are seen as soft targets and become victims of race-based riots. Indo-Guyanese experienced rioting in 1962; Indo-Fijians suffered violence and unrest as large numbers of Indians were attacked in 1987; and the South Africans of Indian origin suffered violence in 3 riots, namely in the 1949 and 1985 Inanda riots and the latest in the KZN 2021 riots.

The British have failed to take responsibility for Indians who were displaced by indentured labour by making provision for a homeland to accommodate these marginalised and discriminated communities. An application was submitted to the British High Commission on the 20th of February 2023 by a small group of activists to address the matter, but they opted to ignore the application. The hope is to move these small displaced communities into a single region, where they will become a sizable community within the nation’s population and no longer become targets of unrest and violence.

Today much of the conflict in and around the Middle East region is driven by access to oil reserves, where the incitement of war destroys democracies to replace governments with puppets to gain access to natural resources. The greatest curse to the Middle East is its oil reserves. Warfare has changed drastically since the last world war. With advanced technology weapons systems, precise target strikes, and the availability of large defence budgets, global leaders exercise their might on smaller divided nations with rich natural resources.

A World War 3 will see a significantly higher displacement of people globally and mass destruction with major cities being destroyed.Another threat factor to consider is operatives who opted to settle in foreign countries as migrants during peace times. Most countries have taken advantage of this opportunity to station covert operatives to gather intelligence and establish structures within potential enemy countries. This network will destabilise and carry out acts of sabotage during an armed conflict. With the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons, a nuclear war will have a detrimental effect ecologically on the earth and on humanity as compared to previous world wars.

After a nuclear explosive has been detonated, the presence of radioactivity remains in the region for decades, impacting humans, animals and the environment, as seen with Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Chernobyl disaster in Russia that took place about 40 years ago still poses a radioactive threat to the environment. While South Africa is neither a nuclear threat nor has distinctive long-term enemies with nuclear arms, it’s unlikely for the country to suffer a nuclear attack or be a region for World War conflict, but battlefields changes as wars progresses. What poses a concern if a nuclear war breaks out, is a possible influx of refugees into South Africa escaping disaster from their conflict regions.

Our challenge would be dealing with victims exposed to radioactive material wanting to enter the country. We can expect various documented and undocumented means by air, sea or by simple border crossings to reach our shores. These refugees are most likely to head towards major cosmopolitan areas, thereby increasing the probability of contaminating large masses of the local populace.

South Africa will have to have a military contingency plan in place under the South African National Defence Force and exercise a high alert in terms of border control at the outbreak of the war. Establishing refugee camps in remote parts of the country is necessary to quarantine and prevent further contamination. The big question is? Does South Africa have the defence budget or the intellectual capabilities to counter such a threat?   

Vinesh Selvan is a military historian and a former Soldier of the South African National Defence Force. He also served as business development executive within the South African Arms Industry. Selvan is currently documenting the military participation of Indians in South Africa spanning from the Anglo-Boer War to present day.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media. 

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