Could South Africa be next after Venezuela?

WE HAVE just watched something shocking. As we begin 2026, American forces have bombed Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro Moros. This was not random. It follows a year where the US, under President Donald Trump, bombed seven other countries. They have returned to a brutal old habit: using force to topple governments they don’t like.

The White House said it wanted to stop drug trafficking. But that story collapses immediately. America’s own drug agencies don’t even list Venezuela as a source for drugs entering the US. Even US politicians admit they weren’t properly briefed. If the public reason is a clear lie, we must ask what the real reasons are?

The truth is about oil, power, and punishment.

First, oil. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves on Earth. Powerful people in Washington have openly dreamed of taking it. One US politician called it a “field day” for American companies, worth over a trillion dollars. This isn’t a drug war; it’s theft, disguised as security.

Second, it hurts China. China buys most of Venezuela’s oil. By seizing it, the US cuts a critical lifeline to its biggest rival.

Third, it breaks an alliance. Venezuela was joining BRICS - the group with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This group challenges US money and power. Removing Venezuela’s president stops it from joining. It also hurts Cuba, Venezuela’s ally, by cutting off its cheap oil supply.

The pattern is now unmistakable: find a resource-rich country that defies the US, invent a noble-sounding reason, and use force to install a friendly government. This forces a terrifying question for the rest of us: who is next?

Could they use this playbook against us in South Africa?

Look at the template from Venezuela, and then look in the mirror. We, too, are rich in resources and are an independent BRICS member. We’ve also challenged powerful nations, as we did with our case against Israel at the ICJ. This marked us as a leading voice for justice - a role that can make a bullying power angry.

What lie could they use against us? Look at how disinformation works. The US has already sanctioned us for a white genocide despite all our constitutional protections and a functional constitutional court that often rules in favour of the likes of Afriforum.

Afriforum wants to benefit from our constitution and through unconstitutional coercion from a foreign power because of their quest for institutional privilege and their lust for power. All of this could be sold to the world as a cause for “humanitarian” intervention because, like Israel, the benefactor often claims to be the victim.

Why fit the target profile perfectly. The reasons to target us mirror Venezuela’s exactly.

We are a core BRICS member. Striking us would shatter this key alliance that stands up to Western power.

The USA would want to steal mineral wealth and our treasures in the ground - platinum, chrome, and manganese. These are vital for technology and green energy. Foreign interests crave easier access. A compliant, installed government would hand it to them.

They want to silence us. Our International Court of Justice case proved we are a conscience for the world. To a power that deals only in loyalty, such independence is an insult that must be answered.

Some might pretend that certain groups here would welcome foreign forces as liberators. This is a fatal fantasy. Communities like our Indian South African community, with deep roots in our democracy, know that real stability comes from our own constitution and its institutions - not from foreign bombs.

The real result would be catastrophe - a collapse like Libya’s. Our institutions would break, old wounds would tear open, and our economy would be plundered. Every single South African, of every race and class, would suffer. Our hard-won unity would be obliterated, leaving only chaos for the invaders to profit from.

Venezuela’s tragedy teaches us one undeniable truth: the excuse is always a lie. The “drug war” was just a curtain to steal oil and crush dissent.

For us, the lesson is a call to vigilance and to each other. Our sovereignty, our resources, and our independent voice are our strengths. But in this new era of lawless power, they also paint a target on our backs.

Our government, with all its flaws, is ours to fix - through our votes and our voices, not by foreign invasion. The bombs over Caracas today are a warning, whispered already to the hills of Pretoria.

Our response must be clear, and it must be collective: strengthen our democracy from within, guard our constitution with our lives, and stand together as one people against any hand that tries to steer our fate.

For our soil, our spirit, and our future are not commodities to be taken. They are a covenant - held in trust, defended in unity, and destined to remain, forever, our own.

Roshan Jainath is a community activist and writer. 

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media. 

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