Iran: a repeat of Iraq? Unpacking the current conflict

YUSUF ISMAIL explores the parallels between the current conflict in Iran and the Iraq War, highlighting the legal and ethical implications of military actions taken by the US and Israel.

AND so we are back here again with a repeat of Iraq 101 all over again and the same lies and deceptions that follow through. Like the invasion of Iraq in 2003, an attack on Iran has a secret agenda that has nothing to do with the Tehran regime’s imaginary weapons of mass destruction. The co-ordinated strikes by the US and Israel these past few days constitute nothing more than a violation of international law at a fundamental level, and at all levels a criminal terrorist attack on another sovereign nation state.

Hark at the irony of Donald Trump labelling an old disabled 86-year-old man as one of the most evil in history; rings hollow particularly in the light of the Epstein files which reveal the paedophile class and the members behind this dark coterie of individuals, engaged in the most vicious kind of war crimes in modern history.

This simultaneously brings attention to Wag the Dog, a satirical film from 1997 where a spin doctor (Robert de Niro) and a Hollywood producer (Dustin Hoffman) fabricate a fake war with Albania to distract the public from a presidential sex scandal days before an election. The difference today is that reality is a far more darker and pernicious, with a form of activity involving a president implicated in a massive and infinitesimally larger child sex and child trafficking scandal in documents, 80% of which still have to be released; and a real war in which 86 schoolchildren and some 600 to 1,000 Iranian civilians in total to date have been slaughtered by US military and Israeli air strikes.

The 86 mass-murdered in one hit were mainly schoolgirls at an all-girls' school in Minab, in Iran's southern Hormozgan province. As the days go by and the strikes (read terrorist attacks by the US and Israel continue), the numbers of dead will inevitably increase, many of which will be women and children; all of which will be excused as usual collateral damage or worse still, human shields.

We have heard the same story book repeated again and again. For the past three years, reports from Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Btselem, the International Association of Genocide Scholars  and numerous UN experts, human rights groups and scholars have characterised Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip as an ongoing genocide, but the international community has been paralysed to enact any appropriate censure, response or action. Expect the same in respect of the war on Iran where any modicum of respect for the international legal order will be sacrificed at the altar of what Trump, Rubio and gang consider expedient.

As an example, two days earlier before the attack on Iran commenced, an intense round of negotiated meanderings concluded in Geneva, with Iran willing to continue. Trump indicated he would give negotiators more time. But all of a sudden came the bombings during the middle of negotiations. Israel said the strikes were “preventive”, meaning they were to prevent Iran from developing a capacity to be a nuclear threat similar, to the lies about Iraq. But preventive war has no legal basis under international law. The UN Security Council did not authorise any military action, and the trajectory of using force for self-defence has to be pursued at all levels before any strike occurs in any capacity whatsoever.

Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Preemptive self-defence, is just not allowed in the given circumstances with Iran. It requires a threat to be “instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means”. No such conditions existed with Iran on February 28. Israel, on the other hand, has flagrantly violated every single rule book of international law, and has attacked four countries in the Middle East in three years.

It remains the only nuclear power in the Middle East and is being tried at the International Court of Justice for genocide. It further remains a perpetual pariah and threat as an eternal and last remaining apartheid state with a policy that encompasses mass murdering children and women, and raping women and men in custody as detailed by the shocking Btselem report, “Welcome to hell”, which is accessible online. Yet, in typical Orwellian fashion, Israel is portrayed as a besieged victim and forces the US to do its bidding in typical belligerent style that the US has been known to engage in for decades.

The contradictions and lies follow day after day. Eight months ago, Trump blatantly said that Iran’s nuclear capability was utterly destroyed. The claim was that Iran would need another three years to build a nuclear weapon capable of posing a threat. In fact in 2006, the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, repeatedly said his inspectors had found nothing to support American and Israeli claims.

Iran has done nothing illegal; it has demonstrated no territorial ambitions nor has it engaged in the occupation of a foreign country – unlike the US, Britain and Israel. It has complied with its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to allow inspectors to” go anywhere and see anything” – unlike the US and Israel. Now eight months later; the weapons of mass destruction lies, now rings a bit shallow and the in-your-face turnaround by Trump is now “regime change”.

Attacking the sovereignty of another country is arguably the greatest war crime. And regime change will never work in Iran in any capacity shape or form. It will bite the US unlike any other. In any event, forcible regime change violates the foundational principles of state sovereignty and non-intervention under the UN Charter. But we have been here before with Iran and the US.

In August 1953, the US, CIA and British intelligence orchestrated a coup (Operation Ajax) to overthrow Iran's democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. Motivated by the nationalisation of the oil industry and Cold War fears, the US installed the Shah as a dictator, causing long-term anti-American sentiment and fuelling the 1979 Revolution. The nationalisation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP) and fears that instability would lead to a communist takeover.

The CIA, led by Kermit Roosevelt jr, funded riots, bribed politicians and staged propaganda to create the appearance of popular opposition to Mosaddegh.

Mosaddegh was imprisoned and placed under house arrest for life. The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, solidified his power, ruling as a US-backed authoritarian tyrant and dictator for 26 years. The coup is widely regarded as a key event in shaping negative US-Iran relations, fostering anti-American sentiment that led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

According to the Harvard Business School study, the coup is often cited as a prime example of the US prioritising geopolitical interests and oil access over democratic, local government in the Middle East. That interest for Iran’s oil has never actually wavered, and with a narcissistic maniac such as Trump in power, greed and the potential for more accumulation of natural reserves and wealth simply skyrockets. Iran's major oil fields are primarily concentrated in the south-western province of Khuzestan and in the Persian Gulf offshore, with key sites including Ahvaz, Gachsaran, Marun, and the massive South Pars gas-condensate field.

These areas account for the bulk of Iran's production. Based on estimates as of early 2026, the total potential value of Iran's oil, gas and mineral reserves is estimated at approximately $27 trillion. Iran holds the world's third-largest proven oil reserves, estimated at roughly 208 to 209 billion barrels. Iran has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, at 34 trillion cubic meters, accounting for about 17% of the global total.

Enhanced gas re-injection could increase the oil recovery rate, potentially adding around 20 billion barrels to extractable reserves, with a value exceeding $1,5 trillion. Even despite sanctions, Iran exported oil worth approximately $67 billion in 2025. That is the great treasure Trump and his henchman want. We clearly live in troubling times and the world can be said to be run in 2026 by the Epstein class at the highest echelons of power.

As the remarkable late war correspondent, John Pilger once remarked: “Power does bring a certain madness to its prodigious abusers, especially those of shallow disposition. There is a logic to the idiocy of Trump, Hegseth, Rubio and co – the goal of dominance. And the propagandist media barking down their alleyway shows us one thing, 23 years after the US invasion of Iraq and that is: We learn from history that we don’t learn.

Yusuf Ismail is a criminal defence lawyer and founder of the South African Debate Initiative

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media. 

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