FOR ALL the supposed hype around the upcoming ANC conference in Mangaung, the campaign to reinstate President Jacob Zuma as leader of the ANC is a far cry from the high-tempo campaign staged five years ago to oust Thabo Mbeki.
Then, the campaign that had catapulted Zuma into the driver’s seat of the ANC as its president ahead of the party’s conference in Polokwane, was a very orchestrated and public campaign clearly driven by Team Zuma.
Five years on, Team Zuma has disintegrated with many of its members now openly at odds with Zuma. The result has been that campaigning for Mangaung has retreated to the shadows with few major players taking on the reins.
Now, the likes of Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, financial mobilisers such as Don Mkhwanazi, and youth leaders like Julius Malema and Fikile Mbalula, who is touted as the possible secretary-general for the team that is seeking to remove Zuma from the office, have disappeared from the Zuma re-election team, taking with them the colour, song and dance, that characterised the pre-Polokwane campaigning. Thus far, the Zuma camp has yet to hear a rendition of the controversial umshin’ wami song which had become something of a “theme song” five years ago.
Malema, who once said he would kill for Zuma, is now the key mover behind the plot to oust Zuma from Shell House.
Indeed, the radical changes in Zuma’s team of supporters is proof enough that there are no permanent friends in politics.
However, a few notables have stuck their neck out for Zuma, including chiefly Blade Nzimande, KwaZulu-Natal Premier Zweli Mkhize, Gwedwe Mantashe and Nathi Mthethwa. Others include Public Enterprise Minister Malusi Gigaba, Cosatu president Sidumo Dlamini, Free State Premier Ace Magashule, Mpumalanga Premier David Mabuza and Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane who has swam against the advancing tide in Gauteng, to declare her backing for a second term for Zuma.
One of the “back-room boys” behind Zuma’s Polokwane campaign, Caesar (Siza) Ngcobo, said what triggered high motions in 2007 was that the conference itself was unique.
“For instance, a sitting president [Mbeki] was trying to bend the rules by seeking to stay in office for a third term, triggering fears that this could lead to the changing of the constitution to enable a third term for him as the president of the country,” said Ngcobo.
Conceding that campaign had taken on a different form this time around, Ngcobo said one of the reasons was because this time around there was no obvious threatening contender.
“In short, and in reality, Zuma’s campaign could only seek to be directly proportionate or to outdo the contender’s campaign,” said Ngcobo.
Thabani Khumalo, a communications and political consultant with the Durban-based Think Tank Marketing agreed that what was missing in the current contestation for Mangaung was clear “battle-lines” and the absence of a clear candidate against Zuma.
“The battle-lines ahead of the ANC’s 52nd congress in Polokwane in 2007 were clear. The election was about a total rejection of Mbeki’s leadership by a broad church of opponents – often referred to in some quarters as the coalition of the disgruntled,” ob- served Khumalo.
But now the battled lines are blurred, said Khumalo, hence the subdued campaign.
“The contest is more about political mind games than dramatic events of the pre Polokwane nomination race. Hence provincial executive committees and regional executive committees have made pronouncements about their choices of leadership ahead of branches. It is all about influencing and putting pressure on branches to rubber stamp their preferred candidates,” said Khumalo.
However, given that this time around Zuma’s campaign is not as strong and enterprising as it was in the buildup to Polokwane, will he secure the second term?
University of KwaZulu-Natal political scientist Zakhele Ndlovu says given the current balance of forces in provinces, Zuma is set to retain his position.
“Apart from KwaZulu-Natal, he also enjoys wide support in Mpumalanga, the Free State, within the ANC Women’s League and among the veterans of the movement. “But divisions in each of these provinces, along with the lack of unity within the ANC Youth League, means that he stands a better chance of retaining his position. I have no doubt that Zuma will prevail,” says Ndlovu.