Guide on how to pick your Met winner

Cape Town - The betting suggests this year’s J&B Met will be won by Legal Eagle, followed home by last year’s hero Futura, with Legislate third. They are the only horses in single figures. Most punters will structure those three into their bets, but to make sense of things, have a look at this “Idiot’s Guide” to the big race at Kenilworth.

LOCAL IS LEKKER

History has shown that it’s difficult for a horse trained outside of the Cape to win the Met. Since 2000 - and results down the years before that echo the pattern - only three horses, all from Gauteng, have won, with 13 being Cape-trained.

In this year’s field five runners, including the hot favourite, come from Gauteng, with one trained in KwaZulu-Natal. If you want to go with history, you’ll be looking for a local horse to win, which means writing off Legal Eagle’s chances of winning.

Cape horses: Futura, Captain America, Legislate, Paterfamilias, Helderberg Blue, King Of Pain, Krambambuli, Light The Lights.

MERIT RATING

The higher the merit rating (MR), the better the handicappers believe the horse is and they therefore give it more weight to carry. Going purely on merit ratings, the best horses are Legal Eagle, Futura, Captain America, Legislate and Smart Call. The lowest rated are Krambambuli and Light The Lights.

At the merit ratings, Legal Eagle is extremely well handicapped because he receives 0.5kg from the likes of Futura, Captain America and Legislate instead of being top weight himself. When a horse is at its highest MR it suggests it won’t get better, those that are still rising are improving and those that are dropping have already reached their peak.

Best weighted: Legal Eagle

At highest: Captain America, Legislate, Master Sabina, Legal Eagle, Paterfamilias, Krambambuli.

Still rising: Smart Call.

Dropped: Futura, Gold Onyx, Puntas Arenas, Helderberg Blue, King Of Pain, Mad De Lago, Light The Lights.

THE CAPE CRAWL

This, along with the south-easter that often blows down the home straight into the faces of the horses, has put paid to the chances of many a runner. The Cape Crawl is a tactic that sees jockeys reluctant to take the lead because they feel the horses will tire in the long home straight.

Horses drawn on the outside struggle to overcome their wide draws when the pace is slow and consequently find themselves too far back when the pace quickens up in the last 500m sprint for home.

Worst draws (not good): Gold Onyx, Master Sabina, Paterfamilias, Krambambuli, Puntas Arenas.

Best draws (good): Light The Lights, Helderberg Blue, Legal Eagle, Legislate, Captain America, Futura.

THE OWNERS

On big occasions like J&B Met day, it’s often the “big” owners who reap the glory. International businesswoman Sabina Plattner won the race with the 66-1 outsider Martial Eagle in 2013; Markus and Ingrid Jooste won with the 16-1 outsider Hill Fifty Four in 2014; Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum won in 2012 with Igugu; Harry Oppenheimer with Horse Chestnut in 1999, and Marsh Shirtliff with Pocket Power and River Jetez.

Hassan Adams was the first black owner to win the race, in 2011. Always look at the jockey’s silks and look for the “big owner”. To them, racing is a business and, like any business, it is rewards-driven. Many of them don’t need to punt - so don’t worry about the odds. It’s all about the glory of owning a J&B Met winner.

The Joostes, for example, will always expect to have at least two winners on Met day, so follow the green with gold stars and black sleeves and cap throughout the day. Look at the owners listed and see how many you recognise. You know they’ll be in with a chance.

“Biggest owners”: Futura, Legislate, Legal Eagle, Paterfamilias, Gold Onyx, Helderberg Blue, Mac De Lago, Krambambuli, Smart Call.

THE TRAINERS

Mike Bass has won five times since 2000, three of them with the great Pocket Power. However, one should note that he has two in the field of 14, Paterfamilias at 20-1 and Helderberg Blue at 40-1.

Mike de Kock, who has won three times since 2000, doesn’t have a runner.

Sean Tarry, who saddles this year’s favourite, is the only other Gauteng trainer to have won (2005). Justin Snaith is a prolific young man and always has a good Met day - follow him throughout the card.

The dominant trainers on the national log over the past couple of years have been Tarry, De Kock, Snaith and Bass. They know how to prime horses for the big days.

Trained by “Big Four”: Futura, Legislate, Legal Eagle, Paterfamilias, Gold Onyx, Helderberg Blue, Krambambuli.

THE JOCKEYS

South Africa’s best riders are in the race and you can be assured they will be trying their best. All of them relish a Grade 1 victory because it opens doors and they also treasure being on the race’s prestigious roll of honour.

The most recent national champions in the race since 2003 and their rides are: Anthony Delpech (Mac De Lago), Gavin Lerena (Master Sabina), Smanga Khumalo (Gold Onyx), Piere Strydom (Legislate) and Anton Marcus (Legal Eagle).

OUTSIDERS

Don’t be scared to back an outsider. Horses are like all of us, they’re flesh and blood and subject to mood swings. Some wake up on the morning of the race and don’t feel great, others struggle in the week and wake up on race day ready to run. And a horse doesn’t know what the betting odds are. Some big outsiders in recent times have won this race and that’s made the swingers, exactas, trifectas and quartets pay well.

BLINKERS

These are often applied to focus the horse more, but the really good horses aren’t usually equipped with them. Only one horse in this year’s field has blinkers - Paterfamilias. That could be an omen, or not.

FILLIES

Don’t write off the fairer sex. Two of the last six runnings have been won by a filly or mare. In 2010, the six-year-old mare River Jetez won, beating the filly Mother Russia, and in 2012 the filly Igugu romped home.

This year there’s only one filly in the race, the bottom weight Smart Call.

Cape Argus