'Teboho Mokoena-gate' explained: What Bafana Bafana must do to stamp their ticket to World Cup

Bafana Bafana’s ticket to a fourth appearance at the FIFA World Cup could well be within reach, but South Africa’s senior national team are far from being home and dry.

What with ‘Teboho Mokoena-gate’ still up in the air as world governing body FIFA continues to remain silent amidst loud calls from Nigeria to have three points expunged from South Africa’s haul.

Top of the table on 16 points with three matches to go, Hugo Broos’ team enjoy a five-point lead over second-placed Benin, while their nemesis Nigeria were nine points behind before last night's match against Rwanda kicked off.

Ahead of the bitter rivals’ crunch meeting on Tuesday at the Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein, the Nigerians are banking on FIFA punishing South Africa for having fielded Mokoena in that 2-0 win over Lesotho back in March.

The Mamelodi Sundowns workhorse had two yellow cards and should not have participated in that match played at Polokwane’s Peter Mokaba Stadium. The rules state that Bafana should lose that match 3-0.

Suppose Bafana were to lose those three points, how would that decision affect their qualification chances?

Let’s assume Nigeria beat Rwanda yesterday. The Super Eagles would trail Bafana by six points. But with the loss of the three points, that gap will be reduced to three.

For South Africa to finish top of the group, they will need to avoid defeat against Nigeria on Tuesday and then win their other two matches against Benin and Zimbabwe, coming up in October.

Should they lose to Nigeria on Tuesday with the points from the Lesotho match taken away, the two countries will then go into the final two matches tied on 13 points. Assuming both win their two remaining matches, they will then complete the qualifiers equal on 19 points — and the top team will be decided on the strength of goal difference first.

Should they be tied there, it will then go to the head-to-head results – a criterion that will favour the Super Eagles, given that the first-round match was drawn and Nigeria would presumably have won the second round.

It is for that reason that Broos has said that Bafana should simply focus on doing their job on the pitch and beat Nigeria on Tuesday at what should be a Toyota Stadium packed to the rafters.

On the face of it, the Super Eagles team coming down is a strong side – teeming as it does with European-based players and boasting the previous two African Footballers of the Year in Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman.

Compare that to a Bafana squad made up mainly of local-based players and bereft of close on a handful of regulars, and you are likely to see the bookmakers putting the odds heavily in favour of a Super Eagles victory.

Though they enjoyed a consummately easy victory over Lesotho on Friday, their performance was not that compellingly good to inspire confidence that they will make short work of Nigeria.

Football is fickle at the top though and, as the popular saying goes, is not played on paper. Under Broos, Bafana are yet to lose in 21 matches and they will be eager to keep that unbeaten run going.

Achieve that and South Africans better start saving up for the trip to the World Cup in Donald Trump-land — although many in Mzansi will be hoping that Bafana are drawn into a group placed in Mexico or Canada.