The Middle East is experiencing a significant geopolitical shift as Iran’s Axis of Resistance, a network of Iranian-backed militias and political organisations spanning Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, faces unprecedented decline. This coalition, rooted in Shi’a Islamism and anti-Western, anti-Zionist ideologies, has long served as Iran’s primary tool for regional influence, enabling it to supply arms, resources, and training to proxies. Syria, under Bashar al-Assad, was a cornerstone of this network, acting as a conduit for Iranian power projection into Lebanon and beyond. However, recent developments have severely weakened the Axis, raising questions about Iran’s future role in the region and within the BRICS+ alliance.
The Collapse of Syria’s Role
In December 2024, Assad’s regime was overthrown by the Turkish-backed Sunni militia Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marking a devastating blow to Iran. Syria, one of Iran’s oldest allies and a key gateway into the Arab world, was lost overnight, along with billions in investments. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Iran had invested over $30 billion in Syria since 2011 to bolster its strategic network. This loss not only disrupts Iran’s land bridge but also weakens its ability to project power.
Hezbollah’s Decline and Lebanon’s Shifts
The fall of Syria further undermines Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy. Established in Lebanon in the 1980s with Iranian support, Hezbollah has faced significant setbacks in recent years. In 2023 and 2024, Israeli forces eliminated Hezbollah’s high command and reduced its operational capacity by 40%, according to the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). Additionally, Lebanon’s resolution of a two-year political deadlock with new leadership has diminished Hezbollah’s influence, complicating Iran’s efforts to rebuild its proxy network without Syrian support.
Resilience Amid Decline
Despite these setbacks, the Axis retains some resilience. Iran and its Iraqi allies, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), remain influential. During the HTS offensive in Syria, the PMF demonstrated its military readiness by offering to intervene. Iran also benefits from the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, providing an opportunity to expand its influence there. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have emerged as a strategic asset, disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic and launching missile attacks on Israel. Their tribal structure and Yemen’s rugged terrain make them harder to target, offering Iran a more elusive and valuable proxy than Hezbollah.
BRICS+ and Regional Rivalries
Iran’s declining influence coincides with its efforts to strengthen its position within BRICS+, a bloc offering an alternative to Western-dominated alliances. However, its regional setbacks may undermine its standing. Saudi Arabia, a BRICS+ member and regional rival, has capitalised on Iran’s decline by increasing defence spending by 15% in 2024, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). This signals Riyadh’s intent to counter Tehran’s influence as the two vie for dominance in the Middle East.
Iran’s Uncertain Future
Iran’s weakened position raises concerns about its next steps. With its regional influence eroding, there is speculation that Tehran could pivot toward nuclear weapons as a means of survival. An already precarious regime, fighting to maintain its grip on power, could become a greater source of regional instability if its access to the Middle East continues to diminish.
The collapse of Syria’s role in the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah’s decline, and Lebanon’s political shifts have significantly weakened Iran’s regional influence. While the Axis retains some resilience through the PMF and the Houthis, Iran’s diminished standing poses challenges for its ambitions within BRICS+ and its rivalry with Saudi Arabia. The question now is whether Iran can recover or if it will resort to more drastic measures to secure its survival.
By Chloe Maluleke: Associate at The BRICS+ Consulting Group
Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist