A decline in the price of the February Food Basket did not yet signal lower prices in the future, the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group (PMBEJD) cautioned on Wednesday.
The average cost of the Household Food Basket was R5 277,30 in February this year, as per the PMBEJD Affordability Index.
The index which tracks food price data from 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries, in Johannesburg, showed that month-on-month, the average cost of the Household Food Basket decreased by R47,56 (-0.9%), from R5 324,86 in January this year to R5 277.30 this month.
Year-on-year, the average cost of the Household Food Basket increased by R348.96 (7.1%), from R4 928.34 in February last year to R5 277.30 in February this year.
Mervyn Abrahams, the Programme Coordinator at the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group(PMBEJD) which produced the data, said the February price data showed a small decrease in the total cost of the average household food basket.
“This is relatively consistent with historical data, where February prices are lower than January’s, and March prices come in higher than February’s. From October 2023 we had started to see a slight downward trend in food prices, with January 2024 presenting a blip, albeit consistent with past trends. Food price fluctuations are unpredictable and we do not yet know whether the downward trajectory we saw from October 2023 will continue into the new year, or if prices are set to rise in the coming months, consistently with previous years,” Abrahams said.
He added that it was their assessment however, that food inflation may be more subdued this year (compared to the past two years), whilst still remaining high.
PMBEJD said In this regard, for women trying to secure food for their families, it was not necessarily the price fluctuations on individual foods that presents a problem but rather the total cost of the household basket relative to income levels-and here the total cost of the household basket relative to income levels was still too high.
“It presents families with an household affordability crisis because the household purse has to cover a myriad of different expenses, food being just one of these expenses, and importantly the expense which is most likely within a woman’s control-food purchasing-tends to be compromised in an attempt to hold the family together by securing other critical expenses for household functioning. Women sacrifice nutrition-primarily their own, and to a lesser degree, and with excruciating pain, also their children’s, as they play an impossible game to make ends meet. Unless the Rand-value cost of the household food basket comes down substantially, or if income levels rise significantly-women will struggle to feed their families at a minimal level of nutrition this year.
Abrahams said whilst February saw most of the 44 foods in the basket decreasing month-on-month, with 29 decreasing, 1 showing no change, and 14 increasing, they cautioned that this did not yet signal lower prices in the future.
“The decreases are still coming off a high base and we are yet to see significant drops in prices which would ease the affordability crisis in the trolley. Women are still under enormous pressure to ensure that basic foods are on their family plates and that small amounts of nutritious food are available for their children. Women tell us that it hasn’t been a good start to the year for them- food prices and other critical goods and services are still very high relative to income levels, and women have had to take on higher levels of debt to try and close some gaps, whose servicing will put even greater pressure on the little monies that come into the home going forward. 2024 is therefore likely – still – to be another difficult year for families.”
The foods in the basket which increased by 2% or more in February included sugar beans (4%), beef liver (2%), wors (2%), carrots (2%), spinach (11%), powdered milk(2%), and oranges (77%). The group noted that that orange price data in its basket was not reliable currently as oranges were still coming into season.
Foods in the basket which decreased in price in February by 5% or more, included potatoes (-5%), stock cubes (-7%), soup (-5%), eggs (-8%), chicken feet (-6%), chicken livers (-7%), beef (-5%), tomatoes (-9%), butternut (-12%), green pepper (-20%), bananas (-14%), and apples (-9%).
Foods in the basket which decreased in price by 2% or more, included maize meal (-2%), rice (-2%), cooking oil (-2%), salt (-3%), frozen chicken portions (-2%), curry powder (-2%), tea (-2%), inyama yangaphakathi (-3%), fish (-3%), cabbage (-3%), polony (-3%), and brown bread (-2%).
Statistics South Africa’s latest Consumer Price Index for December 2023 showed that headline inflation was 5.1% and for the lowest expenditure quintiles 1-3 it was 8.4%, 7.7%, and 6.8% respectively. CPI Food inflation was 8,5% (for CPI Food & NAB was 8.5%, with PMBEJD using the figure excluding non-alcoholic beverages).
In February, food baskets decreased in all areas tracked (Joburg, Durban, Cape Town, Springbok, Pietermaritzburg and Mtubatuba).
The Joburg basket decreased by R4.24 (-0.1%) month-on-month, and increased by R434.12 (8.8%) year-on-year, to R5 357.53 in February.
The Durban basket decreased by R99.43 (-1.9%) month-on-month, and increased by R294,35 (5.9%) year-on-year to R5 262.95 in February.
The Cape Town basket decreased by R106.17 (-2.0%) month-on-month, and increased by R168.60 (3.4%) year-on-year, to R5 111.05 in February.
The Springbok basket decreased by R46.66 (-0.8%) month-on-month, and increased by R518.28 (10.3%) year-on-year to R5 573.89 in February.
The Pietermaritzburg basket decreased by R114.73 (-2.2%) month-on-month, and increased by R372.28 (7.8%) year-on-year, to R5 124.04 in February.
The Mtubatuba basket decreased by R79.27 (-1.4%) month-on-month, and increased by R253.04 (4.9%) year-on-year, to R5 388.22 in February.
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