RICH MASHIMBYE
Democratic South Africa has only known one political party as the governing party at the national level of government. That party is the African National Congress.
The ANC has had this long, uninterrupted run in government because it was able to win elections and by doing so gain the right to govern the country, as stipulated in the South African Constitution, that the political party that wins elections shall govern.
In 1994, the ANC won 62% of the national vote, in 1999 66%, 2004 69.7%, 2009 65.9%, 2014 62.1% and in 2019 57.5%. It has been an incredible electoral performance by the former liberation movement.
But it is worth observing that in the last national and provincial elections (2019) the ANC went below 60% for the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, perhaps something significant as a harbinger of what is to come.
Politics determines many things in any society, such as safety and security, economic direction and performance, rights and responsibilities extended to a people and foreign relations. It is men and women that are at the centre of politics, for politics transpires in communities, societies, countries.
The Greek philosopher Aristotle correctly observed that ‘man is by nature a political animal’. In countries based on political party systems, the party is the most important medium through which citizens of voting age express their hopes and aspirations for the future, via the act of voting for their preferred party to form a government.
In May 2024 South Africans will be heading to the voting booths to decide their future. The ANC’s position has never been as tenuous as it is currently due to recent political developments in the country; the creation of parties seemingly capable of denting the ANC support.
The emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) will be devastating for the ANC, as the party seems to have steadfastly gained a foothold in one of South Africa’s traditional election battlegrounds, the province of KwaZulu-Natal.
Making matters worse for the ANC and its electoral prospects in 2024 is the fact that MKP is headed by its former president, the charismatic Jacob Zuma, who remains very popular with black voters.
The MKP has since attracted many disgruntled former ANC leaders such as former government minister Des van Rooyen and MP Mervyn Dirks to its ranks, while others like ex-minister Nathi Nhleko have simply revoked their ANC membership without announcing new political homes.
An imagery of abandonment of the ANC has been created and affixed on the party because of these developments.
Worse for the ANC, the MKP also seems to have support in Gauteng, and not just in KZN as many had suspected would be the case.
As of 2022, Gauteng and KZN were the most populous provinces in South Africa, with the former having 15.1 million people and the latter 12.4 million.
The population factor is crucial because it logically affects the national elections outcomes. A poor performance in Gauteng and KZN would signal a disaster for the ANC and its ambition of retaining political power at the national level.
Already, election polls by organisations like the Brenthurst Foundation and the Social Research Foundation indicate that newly formed parties such as the MKP and ActionSA will fare well in the 2024 national and provincial elections.
These are parties that will receive support from disillusioned traditionally ANC voters. The situation could not be bleaker for the ANC!
As a former liberation movement-turned political party, the ANC has done what it could since 1994 to tackle the many socioeconomic and security challenges that confront the post-apartheid South African society.
However, 30 years since its ascendence to the seat of power, the Union Buildings, its successive governments could have done far, far better than they have in addressing the problematic issues that affect South Africans, especially the black majority whose circumstances somewhat continue to resemble those of the apartheid years.
Indeed there is a sense in which ordinary people in rural areas, townships and the urban fringes feel that the ANC has run its course and that very little of use can still come out of it.
Considering this and the entrance of the MKP, a fatal blow to the ANC seems inevitable. ANC’s days as the electoral hegemon and the sole governing party will be past in post-2024 elections.
A new era of coalition politics at the national level is on the horizon, and with the chaos that South Africans have been subjected to in the local government sphere emanating from co-governance bickering among partner parties, the future may be scarier. Only time will tell what becomes of this likely new reality.
Rich Mashimbye is a researcher at the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation, University of Johannesburg.
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