London - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday evening will face a punishing vote of no confidence by his fellow Conservative Party lawmakers following anger over lockdown-breaking parties at Downing Street and overall discontent with his leadership, which one former ally branded a "charade."
The stunning development came after enough Conservative lawmakers submitted letters of no confidence to trigger the process, signalling how deeply some in Johnson's own party feel about his leadership — and their own prospects in upcoming elections.
Johnson's supporters say he will likely survive the no-confidence vote and remain prime minister. But he will be wounded. His predecessor, Theresa May, survived a no-confidence challenge over her failed Brexit deal in 2018. However, she was forced to resign the next year.
Assuming Johnson wins — and win is a dubious verb for a politician in this position — both he and his party will struggle to rebuild their Tory brand in the face of high inflation, soaring cost of living and months-long waiting times for patients at the National Health Service.
In opinion surveys, Johnson's polling numbers are in the dumpster after months of drip-drip revelations about how he allowed his staff to turn his office and residence of 10 Downing Street into an ersatz frat house during the darkest days of the pandemic — with "BYOB" party invites, karaoke singing, fisticuffs and vomiting.
The secret balloting will take place between 6 and 8 pm local time (1 and 3 pm Eastern time). A confidence vote is triggered when 15% of the Conservative's Parliamentary party — or 54 lawmakers — submit letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee, a powerful group of backbench Tory lawmakers. To survive, Johnson needs just a simple majority — or 180 votes — of his fellow party members.
If Johnson survives, as is likely, the vote is still a sensational moment, which follows a long string of bad decisions made by the prime minister, especially his constant need to fudge his answers.
Will Jennings, a politics expert at the University of Southampton, said that Conservative politicians were maneuvering now — “after an obvious pause for the (Platinum Jubilee)” — as many have calculated that the Partygate scandal “will hang over the PM in the run-up to the next election,” which is in 2 ½ years.
Johnson's critics, Jennings said, have noticed that “voters have moved on from Partygate, they don't want to hear about Partygate. But they have very made up their minds about Partygate. They think that the prime minister broke the rules, there's very broad support for him going, and the public don't see him as trustworthy. This is starting to pose a serious electoral threat to the Conservative Party.”
This is all the more remarkable as it comes just a little over two years after Johnson led the party to a whopping 80-seat majority at the 2019 general election.
The Washington Post