Durban - The last time the Springboks lost a match on French soil was in 2009 when John Smit’s excellent team came a cropper at the end of an otherwise excellent year, which had seen them beat the All Blacks three times in a row and the British & Irish Lions.
The French had been given hope and that is usually when they are at their most dangerous, but on Saturday it is a very different scenario, with the French tipped to add the Bok scalp to a belt bulging with 11 others, including that of heavyweights, New Zealand, England and Ireland.
Since that 2009 match, the Boks have won three games in France and four more in South Africa for their best-ever streak against a team that has given the Boks plenty of headaches since they first met in Bordeaux in 1913.
The French cannot be relied on to lose when they are expected to!
In 1958, they toured South Africa for the first time and were expected to be smashed in the two-Test series, but the cockerel crowed the loudest after the visitors drew the first Test at Newlands and then beat the Boks 9-6 at Ellis Park.
It was the first time the Boks had lost a home series since the 1890s, when they were still learning the game!
Since that great start in South Africa in 1958, the French have gone on to beat the Boks more times in SA than they have in France.
In 44 matches between the countries, France have beaten the Boks 11 times — five times on French soil and six times in South Africa, and each of those occasions have been upsets because the Boks have a tradition of underestimating France in SA.
There has also been an unusually high number of draws (six) and four of those have been in SA. That means in 24 matches France have played on SA soil, the Boks have only won 14 for a 58% win record, which is poor.
And then the French tend to lose to the Boks in France ... It doesn’t make sense!
And let me digress a little further … Lest we forget the last time the Boks played at today’s venue, the Stade Velodrome. It was the 2007 World Cup quarter-final and for three-quarters of the match the Fijians looked like they were sending the Boks home. The Boks scraped over the line, but only just …
The only other Test the Boks have played in Marseille (and at this ground) they got hammed 30-10 by France in 2002. That match will be remembered for the Bok debut of Bakkies Botha who, true to form, was yellow-carded 10 minutes before halftime after having been given a string of lectures by the referee for over-boisterous play.
So how will it go tomorrow in the balmy south of France? Will the Boks finally have a comfy night at the Stade Velodrome where 70 000 delirious fans lie in ambush?
My gut feeling is that after losing so closely to Ireland last week, the Boks will go up a gear in Marseille. If you look at their last three games, they played well to beat the Pumas in Argentina, they were very average in beating the Pumas in Durban and then were mediocre last week.
I reckon they are due a big performance, like the smashing of the All Blacks in Nelspruit which came after a lukewarm series against Wales. They will beat France, with Damian Willemse kicking his goals.
Springboks:
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 KurtLee Arendse, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Subs: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Makazole Mapimpi
France:
15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille
Subs: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Sipili Falatea, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Bastien Chalureau, 21 Sekou Macalou, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Matthieu Jalibert
@MikeGreenaway67