Cape Town - Job creation tops the list as the number one issue that will determine who voters will vote for in the upcoming national and provincial elections, with 55% saying they will vote for a certain party that promises jobs.
This is according to the Factors Determining Voter Choice in South Africa’s 2024 research.
The survey, released by the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Development in Africa, asked respondents why they would choose a specific party in the 2024 election. They could offer up to five reasons.
“The most frequently cited reason was that the party will create jobs (55% of respondents), followed by the party promises to improve people’s lives (49%), the party will improve service delivery (48%), and it pays social grants (44%),” reads the report.
According to the report, the sample of its analysis included 3 511 respondents, split roughly in half by gender, with 51% women and 49% men.
It said the majority of respondents live in urban areas (67%) compared to rural areas (33%). Most of the sample is made up of young people, with 51% aged 18–34 years, 41% aged 35–60 years, and 8% older than 60 years.
Regarding racial composition, 9% are white, 79% black African, 3% Indian or Asian, and 10% coloured.
The report also suggests that the EFF might be the country’s new opposition, as more respondents opted for the red berets over the DA.
“We asked respondents who they would vote for in the upcoming national election in 2024: 33% said ANC, 19% said EFF, and 15% said DA. Twelve percent said they would vote for other opposition parties, and 21% said either they would not vote, refused to say, were not registered, or did not know who they would vote for.”
The report states that ANC support has fallen substantially from previous waves, where it hovered at just over 50%.
“The EFF, by contrast, looks to be a far more popular choice than previously seen in the survey data. It has almost doubled since our 2020 survey. Support for the DA is consistent with what we saw in previous waves.”
In terms of trust in leadership, Cyril Ramaphosa gained confidence among the respondents, as the repost said four out of 10 respondents have put their trust in his leadership.
Ramaphosa’s popularity rose from 54% in 2019 to 60% in 2020 and 77% in 2023.
“Increased trust in Ramaphosa’s presidency in 2020 could be attributed to the government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2023, the reason for this increase in trust is unclear but may be attributed to his being outspoken about corruption and heralding the prosecution of those who have been accused of corruption. Nevertheless, it does suggest support for Ramaphosa is greater than that for the ANC,” the study reads.
The report, authored by Leila Patel, Yolanda Sadie, and Jaclyn de Klerk, said party loyalty – that is, loyalty to the party that brought freedom and democracy to the country – is a persistent factor determining party choice.
“This is the case except for 2017 during the last days of Jacob Zuma’s presidency of the ANC. In this 2023 survey, respondents were 58% more likely to choose the incumbent party – the ANC – than an opposition party if they selected party loyalty as their reason for party choice.”
They said if the ANC falls below the threshold to govern on its own, the country is likely to see its first national coalition government after this month’s national general elections.
“We find that the majority of South Africans (38.9%) are not in favour of a national coalition government. ANC supporters are least likely to support a coalition government at the national level (40.1%), followed by EFF supporters (34.9%) and DA supporters (32.5%).
“Interestingly, participants supporting the remaining smaller parties were least in favour of a coalition government at the national level.
“For most of the parties, the question of who the coalition partners are likely to be was important to know in deciding whether to support coalitions or not. Supporters of the DA (44.5%) were most concerned about who the coalition partners might be compared to the ANC supporters (33.9%), the EFF supporters (37.4%), and 43.1% for other party supporters.”
According to the study, other factors that will determine a voter’s choice include: Improve people’s lives (49%); Improve service delivery (48%); Pay social grants (44%) and I trust this party (40).