US President Donald Trump has set global power relations on a tailspin, leaving all of Europe reeling in confused shock and disbelief and the future completely uncertain.
A mere one month in office, Trump has signed countless executive orders and flipped America’s foreign policy from his predecessor Joe Biden’s globalism to his election promise of the inward-looking MAGA revolution, or Make America Great Again.
Like him or hate him, with Trump one thing is certain: what you see, or hear, is what you get! Such are the traits of a businessman-turned-politician—he runs the civil service as if it were a profit-orientated private business venture.
Trump assumed office only on January 20, and his new foreign policy has allies and foes shaking with trepidation due to the unpredictability of the new White House.
But one thing you have to give to Trump is his desire and determination to stop simmering conflicts. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are his top priority. He has prevailed upon the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to enter into a truce with Hamas. So far the peace deal is holding, and I can only wish that long may it last.
But it is his expeditious move to end the Ukraine war through dialogue with the Kremlin. Until only recently, Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, were pariahs in the eyes of the West. The erstwhile Biden administration, the G7, EU and NATO had all collaborated around Russophobia and unleashed a barrage of unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia.
The rallied around Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky, pumping astronomical amounts of money and arms plus personnel as part of a grand plan to defeat Russia.
Together, they provided Zelensky with diplomatic cover and offered him a slot on every available public event to speak out against Putin and Russia. Overnight, the West turned Zelensky into their affable geopolitical celebrity, flying from one capital to the other royal-style.
Zelensky became Europe’s blue-eyed boy, getting literally anything and everything at will, and sometimes getting even much more than he had asked. The determination of the West to rally around Zelensky to annihilate Russia was the grand strategy that only collapsed spectacularly in recent days after Trump made true on his election promise to end the Ukraine war on his first day of office as America’s 47th president.
And, as he courted Putin and rapidly set up a first face-to-face diplomatic engagement that took place in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh this week, Zelensky felt ostracised and hit back by declaring: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine at the table.”
For the Trump team and the Russians, the primary objective of the first direct diplomatic engagements since the war broke out nearly three years ago was rather to reset bilateral relations broadly. Ukraine was thus only a part of the greater discussions, and not the thing.
Typically, Trump did not take too kindly to Zelensky’s criticism of being left out of the Riyadh talks. Zelensky’s ardent European backers were also aggrieved. In haste, the French President Emmanuel Macron called a meeting of a few continental leaders in Paris.
The UK’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, was one of the main participants. He proposed putting together a European military force to be based in Ukraine on the border with Russia to serve as a buffer zone and a deterrent to ensure that Russia will not attack Ukraine again following the imminent peace deal that Trump is working on.
The Russians, through veterans Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov, warned that such a move would be as unacceptable as Ukraine joining NATO, a causal probability to the current war. Russia viewed Ukraine’s joining NATO as an existential threat to their national security.
NATO’s expansion eastward has always been regarded as a red line, but the Biden administration did not give a hoot and dared Russia to carry out whatever the threat. The rest, as they say, is history.
Meanwhile, Trump’s expeditious move to end the war has incensed Zelensky so much that he publicly accused Trump of being trapped in “Russia’s disinformation bubble”. In return, Trump reminded Zelensky that he was holding office illegitimately as his term of office expired in 2024 and he has not held elections.
Trump called Zelensky a “dictator” whose approval rating among the Ukrainians was at a mere “4%”. Additionally, Trump sarcastically said Zelensky was a moderately successful comedian who managed to squeeze 350 billion dollars out of the US treasury.
As the public spat between Kyiv and Washington developed this week, Trump accused Zelensky of not wanting to end the war because he was looking at the “gravy train”, implying financial support from the US.
Trump further declared that when it comes to Europe’s financial support for Ukraine, it was regarded as a “loan” to be paid back, yet when it comes to the US, the money was a donation. Washington then drafted, whereby they wanted Zelensky to append his signature to repay the US previous “donations” and future ones, and repaying with their assortment of minerals. After Zelensky failed to sign on the grounds that he wanted assurance of security guarantees against Russia, guarantees that Washington was not offering, everything went awry.
Now, a visibly agitated Trump has warned Zelensky that if he does not align himself with the peace efforts underway, he would be left with no country as things were moving rather fast.
Knowing Trump, such is not an empty threat. Zelensky has picked up a fight with the wrong guy. Without US support, there is not much that a weak Europe can guarantee Ukraine.
As Trump surges on with the reconfiguration of global relations, Zelensky will be left in the cold if he dares to stand up to Trump. No one ever does that, least of all a country so weakened by a devastating conflict and that has run out of fighters, arms, and morale and is only kept going by the massive Western public relations machinery that includes imbedded media.
The truth is, war is so undesirable and every opportunity to end any war ought to be embraced. And there is no such thing as a perfect peace deal. Hence, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said both sides of the conflict must be ready for concessions.
The coming weeks and months will prove that nothing can stop Trump from putting together a war-ending deal with Russia and Ukraine, voluntarily or coerively, at the table.
And then, inevitably, Europe does not have what it takes to be on the wrong side of Trump, the commander-in-chief of the world’s largest army. Initially, there will be a lot of EU noise led by the likes of France and the UK, but that’ll be all. Peace is on the horizon, imperfect as it may be, and this is thanks to Trump.
* Abbey Makoe is the founder and editor-in-chief of Global South Media Network. The views expressed are strictly personal.
** The views expressed here do not reflect those of Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL.